In item , Brad a few years agone made fun of me for "predicting" inward 2013 that Obamacare exchanges would unravel due to adverse selection. I conduct maintain in addition to thus far resisted the temptation to needle Brad nearly that equally , well... the Obamacare exchanges unraveled due to adverse selection!
But , unbelievably , Brad is doubling down. While recommending 1 time again a snarky 2015 Krugman slice , inward which fifty-fifty Krugman was non naming his snarks , DeLong writes:
Who is he talking about? John Cochrane , amidst others:
John Cochrane (December 2013): What To create When Obamacare Unravels: “The unraveling of the Affordable Care Act presents a historic chance for change….
…Next boundary [2014] the private mandate is probable to unravel when nosotros encounter how sick the people are who signed upwards on exchanges , in addition to if our authorities genuinely is going to penalize voters for non buying wellness insurance. The employer mandate in addition to ‘accountable attention organizations’ volition accept their turns inward the news. There volition live on scandals. There volition live on fraud. This volition become on for years…
As you lot may conduct maintain noted , at that topographic point was no adverse-selection meltdown of the ObamaCare exchanges inward the boundary of 2014...OK. Mea Culpa. I got "2014" wrong. Though non "this volition become on for years." It took 3 years longer than I said. (And I volition acknowledge , I did non mean value difficult nearly how long it would accept earlier writing "2014")
The insurers pulling out of exchanges , the swaths of the seat down amongst only 1 insurer left , the policies that are prissy cards inward your steal but don't genuinely pay for much , the skyrocketing premiums... it all took 3 to a greater extent than years.
But of all this , Brad seems completely unaware. What , Obamacare is going but swimmingly? People (other than those getting subsidies in addition to medicaid) are but delighted amongst their prissy depression premiums in addition to dandy coverage? Insurance companies are all swarming to furnish telephone commutation policies? Just what stone did Brad crawl out from under? He continues
And what has been Cochrane’s reaction to the failure of his confident prediction? The closest to an acknowledgement of fault I tin honor is:One appointment is "all my predictions?" What insurance companies dare speak out against Obamacare or HHS? What insurance companies are finding exchanges profitable? What insurance fellowship "efficiently processes claims?" And where create I sign up?
John Cochrane (July 2014): Ideas for Renewing American Prosperity: “ObamaCare in addition to Dodd-Frank are monstrous messes…Shorter John Cochrane: Never heed that all my predictions were false. ObamaCare is a disaster. And insurance companies are non happy amongst it–they conduct maintain but been intimidated yesteryear fright that Obama volition somehow come upwards afterward them if they speak ou nearly what a disaster ObamaCare is for them.
…Long laws in addition to vague regulations sum to arbitrary power. The direction uses this ability to purchase off allies in addition to to quiet opponents. Big businesses , public-employee unions in addition to the well-connected larn subsidies in addition to protection , inward render for political support. And silence: No insurance fellowship volition speak out against ObamaCare or the Department of Health in addition to Human Services…
Perhaps inward a decade , at that topographic point volition live on a column yesteryear Cochrane pretending that he e'er knew that on internet ObamaCare was profitable for insurance companies—which would rather live on inward the concern of making coin yesteryear efficiently processing claims than yesteryear exploiting adverse selection.
H5N1 foreign affair. I don't heed at all it beingness pointed out when I'm incorrect , specially nearly "predictions." Economics is non that skillful at unconditional predictions ("what volition happen?" vs. "how volition a policy alter things?") It's foreign to live on ridiculed when , for 1 time , I was right! At to the lowest degree inward the management , if non the speed of events.
Update: My views on what should supervene upon Obamacare are here , encounter specially "After the ACA" in addition to "health status insurance."
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